This is the first in a series of weekly features we’re publishing in the run-up to PRmoment’s: PR Masterclass: The Agency Growth Forum on November 25th.

Chris Lewis has been one of the UK’s most successful PR agency entrepreneurs over the last 25 years and in this exclusive column for PRmoment he talks about the most important growth themes for PR firms right now.

Ever noticed how certain everyone is? You would have thought there had been enough unpredictable events to shake their confidence. But, the certain people are everywhere, especially on social media.

Just after the 2008 financial crisis, The Queen asked bankers why they hadn’t seen it coming. After all, they have loads of data, lots of money and tons of experience. But, they didn’t see it coming, and this points to something that keeps on happening.

Without the imagination to see problems, you can’t prepare or take action.

Certainty is the new mediocrity — I’m sure of it. It’s not as if we don’t have any training in doubt. Universities, laboratories and courtrooms doubt everything. Despite being up to their ears in facts, but drowning in doubt just the same.

One of our greatest philosophers, Rene Descartes said “Dubito ergo cogito ergo sum”, which translates to “I doubt, therefore I think, therefore I am”. He’s pointing out that only humans can doubt things; It’s what separates us from other forms of life.

But, despite living in an unpredictable age, there is no room for doubt. Leaders are required to be confident. The problem with confidence is how often it’s mistaken for competence. Incidentally, there’s a great book on this called “Why do so many incompetent men become leaders?” The author makes the point more eloquently than I can.

Men will apply for jobs when they have a fraction of the skills required. Women will only apply when they have the majority of the skills required. Could this be one of the reasons that women do so well in our profession? Maybe they’re just better at it?

As we all know, PR is changing. We have a lot more information at our disposal now. The real potential for the craft though — especially in crisis planning — is how we join the dots. We need the ability to worry about many things that will never happen.

There are so many threats that companies and clients face, it’s almost impossible to track them all. But, we can at least start from what we know to be a good story. Let’s start with the psychology of the unexpected.

Doubt has to drive everything we do in crisis planning. It’s only when we can see a threat that we can prepare for it. So next time the beast that comes by night keeps you awake, maybe you just need to realise, it could be your best friend.

Chris Lewis’s new book Pomp & Circumstance: Why Britain’s Traditions Matter is now on sale