Crisis communications professionals are no strangers to volatility. Scenario planning has long been an indispensable tool in our armour, allowing us to reassure clients or bosses that we’ve anticipated and prepared for a myriad of future risks. Therefore, we can ensure organisations remain resilient and adaptable, no matter what the political, economic or social climate throws their way.

This year has already made us question if scenario planning is, firstly, still possible and, secondly, still worthwhile. The scale and speed of political, economic, technological and societal change in 2025 has reached new heights.

Even the world’s top economists have failed to accurately foresee the global impact of this year’s seismic events. And, that’s before we start working out how to plan our response to them.

For communications leaders, the geo-political environment is fraught with unprecedented reputational risks. As the rules of engagement are being rewritten in real time, are risk registers and scenario maps nothing more than a reassuring work of fiction?

My view is that these remain a strategic imperative, now more than ever. Scenario planning is the process of imagining and preparing for a range of plausible futures, rather than betting on a single outcome. In today’s climate, this means stress-testing your communications strategy against multiple, often conflicting, political and social realities.

The backdrop may be constantly shifting, but the key considerations when embarking on scenario planning remain the same. These are:

1. Scan the horizon for policy and sentiment shifts. Monitor not just the headlines but the undercurrents, such as policy debates on tax, immigration and climate that could quickly escalate into regulatory changes or public controversies. Ensure your in-house or agency comms teams are tracking upcoming milestones, like elections or major international summits, and considering how the outcomes could impact your operating environment.

2. Identify your vulnerabilities. Ask yourself honestly where you are most exposed. Is it supply chain disruption from new tariffs, reputational fallout from association with controversial policies, or internal challenges as new regulations affect workforce or DEI commitments? Map these vulnerabilities to the most likely and the most disruptive.

3. Build narrative scenarios. Develop detailed, plausible narratives for each key scenario. Ford and GM were famously early adopters of advanced scenario planning, particularly around the shift to EVs. Years before the EV market exploded, it mapped out scenarios considering environmental regulations, technological change, and shifting consumer preferences. This allowed for an early pivot to invest in the right tech and get ahead of the change.

4. Stress-test your communications strategy. For each scenario, diligently probe your current plans. Are your key messages and spokespeople ready for rapid deployment? Do you have established channels to reach all stakeholders, particularly if your systems are taken offline in the event of a cyber incident? When last did you run a simulation to test your c-suite’s response to the most unlikely of scenarios?

5. Ensure cross-functional collaboration. Scenario planning should never be siloed within comms. It only works if it is done hand-in-hand with operations, legal, HR, and business continuity. The first and most vital action is for this cross-function group to agree and assign clear ownership for monitoring triggers and for activating response plans.

6. Review. Refine. Repeat. Scenario planning must continually evolve. Static, one-off exercises are pointless. Regularly review and update your scenarios as new events unfold, and capture lessons learned from recent incidents to refine your approach. During Covid, pharma giants Pfizer and Moderna used scenario planning to anticipate different pandemic trajectories, ultimately allowing them to significantly accelerate vaccine R&D.

In the face of ongoing uncertainty, scenario planning remains our best defence against the unexpected. Not just to mitigate risk, but to identify new opportunities and to build resilience. Today’s communications leaders will be defined by rigorous preparation, an unwavering commitment to keep searching for blind spots, and an awareness that some unknowns will always remain.