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Funding a sustainable future is feasible, EU test finds

One of the big unknowns in the transition to a low carbon, sustainable economy became that bit clearer this week, when an EU stress test result declared that current financial ecosystems could withstand that wholesale shift.

It may seem like just a big piece of financial modelling, but the comprehensive exercise was the first time that all of the European Union’s relevant regulators and the European Central Bank had come together to assess the impact on banks, insurance firms, pension finds and investors of reducing emissions by 55 per cent by 2030.

The conclusion was that it would not destabilise the ‘financial system’, even if investments in heavily polluting companies would have to be withdrawn along the way.

There are known unknowns in all of that, such as how far the Trump administration’s policy reforms may go, whether another pandemic cripples economies, or other macroeconomic catastrophes are caused by geopolitical forces.

But the test - timed for during the last days of what has been prickly and in many eyes unproductive debate at COP29 - is also intended to inform the European Commissions’s and ECB’s approach to the EU’s ‘Fit for 55’ measures over the next six years to try to hit those targets, centred on a carbon border adjustment mechanism and emissions trading system.

And with so many figures having been banded about concerning how much such a profound economic change would cost the world, and willingness of all parties to support that, this is the first ‘clinical’ data examining what the true impact on the world’s (well, Europe’s) ability to foot the bill would be.

It was in stark contrast to conference conversations in Baku, where some estimates were that the cost of preventing further global warming impacts could be as high as $2 trillion. That’s not the economic transition, just the cost of a sticking plaster on the damage.

The past week has seen more media scrutiny of risks that could undermine the world’s progress on the transition to renewable energy sources and many broader measures that would help to limit climate change. Much of that has been in light of wranglings over financial commitments at COP29 and early signs of the incoming US Government’s stance on the environment. As the BBC analysed, combined global efforts are breaking even at best, despite the sizeable action already underway.

Now that the EU has crunched the underlying numbers that form the backbone of the transition in this part of the world, there at least should be less argument about whether the financial fabric which underpins economies can cope with the change.

Written by

Steve Earl, partner at Boldt Partners

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